There is now just one month left in what could be a record breaking year at the U.S. box office. While the top mark still belongs to 2015’s $11.12 billion domestically — thanks in large part to Star Wars: The Force Awakens — 2016 still has a Star Wars film of its own coming up. With eight films already crossing $300 million domestically this year, the U.S. box office has crossed $10 billion in record time. Finding Dory‘s $486 million leads leads all films domestically this year, while Captain America: Civil War‘s $1.15 billion and change is the high-water mark worldwide. Including Civil War, 2016 has seen three films earn $1 billion or more worldwide (the other two being Finding Dory and Zootopia; yes, they are all Disney films).
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Just to note, this list will be organized by predicted worldwide gross, and will not include any films that remain untitled or unlikely to stay in its release spot (i.e. World War Z 2). Furthermore, films released towards the end of the year will have their 2018 grosses included in the prediction. Finally, all box office totals and release dates are according to what is available on Box Office Mojo at the time of this writing. So, here are our predictions for the 20 Highest-Grossing Movies Of 2017.
20. THE LEGO BATMAN MOVIE
Release Date: 2/10/2017
Following the near universal positive reception to the The LEGO Movie, Warner Bros. was quick to announce a sequel starring, perhaps, the film’s most popular character: Batman (voiced to perfection by Will Arnett). The LEGO Movie, which featured an average construction worker (voiced by Chris Pratt), wound up grossing $257 million at the U.S. box office and $469 million worldwide. These are pretty fair comparisons for the spin-off featuring the Caped Crusader.
The LEGO Batman Movie‘s marketing campaign is already in full swing, with recent trailershighlighting the film’s humor and the Dark Knight’s supporting cast, which includes Alfred, Robin, Batgirl, Harley Quinn, and the Joker. This incredible collection of iconic characters, coupled with the built in popularity of the LEGO brand, would seem to position The LEGO Batman Movie as a shoe-in success. However, as a movie predominately aimed at children and families, positive word of mouth will remain important.
We are going to assume, however, that the movie will be mostly appreciated. Regardless, LEGO Batman will be released over the same weekend as the first LEGO themed film and with little family fare to compete. In short, The LEGO Batman Movie should do just fine.
Bold Prediction: $500 million worldwide ($220 million domestically)
19. CARS 3
Release Date: 6/16/2017
There are few sure things in this world, but one of them is that Pixar films do well at the box office. Pixar has released 17 films to date and none of them have earned less than $300 million worldwide. And since 2010, only one Pixar film — The Good Dinosaur — has earned less than $500 million. So, the third film in the Cars series is likely to do good business for the Disney-owned studio.
While Cars 3 likely will not be able to compete with recent Pixar smash hits like Toy Story 3 ($1.067 billion), Finding Dory ($1.026 billion), and Inside Out ($896 million), the film should find enough of an audience to gross in the range set by the prior two films in the series. The first Cars film earned $462 million worldwide, while Cars 2 earned $562 million, despite grossing less than its predecessor at the domestic box office. Even if Cars 3 struggles at the domestic box office, the growth in the international market should be more than enough to make up the difference.
Bold Prediction: $500 million worldwide ($150 million domestically)
18. KINGSMAN THE GOLDEN CIRCLE
Release Date: 10/6/2017
Following the financial (and critical) success of Mathew Vaughn’s Kingsman: The Secret Service, Fox quickly announced a sequel to the R-rated hit. The first film, which starred Colin Firth, Samuel L. Jackson, and Taron Egerton grossed $128 million at the domestic box office and a healthy $414 million worldwide. While sequels do not always perform as well as their predecessors, we feel a bit bullish regarding the prospects of The Golden Circle — even after the change in release date.
Kingsman The Golden Circle is one of the riskier bets on our list, but there is precedent for a sequel to an R-rated action/comedy improving upon its predecessor’s gross. For instance, take 22 Jump Street, the sequel to 21 Jump Street, starring Jonah Hill and Channing Tatum. The first film grossed $138 million domestically and $201 million worldwide, while the sequel topped both numbers with $191 million and $331 million, respectively. While Kingsman The Golden Circle is unlikely to have as large a jump percentage wise, it still should see some extra cash at the box office.
Bold Prediction: $510 million worldwide ($185 million domestically)
17. LOGAN
Release Date: 3/3/2017
There are likely to be few movies in 2017 as highly anticipated as Hugh Jackman’s final outing as Wolverine. After appearing as the character in a total of eight X-Men related films, Jackman will be hanging up his claws after Logan. The film’s marketing campaign has abandoned the usual methods, and instead has released just one trailer (an awesome one, albeit) and a slew of mysterious black and white images; and it’s working. The mystery behind Logan is only furthering the excitement for Wolverine’s first appearance in an R-rated film.
As for Logan‘s prospects at the box office, there are a lot of comparables. With nine X-Men related films having been released to date (including Deadpool), it is pretty safe to assume that Logan‘s final box office gross will fall somewhere in-between X-Men (the lowest grossing film worldwide) and Deadpool (the highest grossing film worldwide). It is highly unlikely that Logan matches Deadpool‘s $782 million worldwide, which is currently a record for an R-rated film. Deadpool‘s $363 domestically (second all time for R-rated movies) is also out of reach.
The most likely scenario for Logan is that it will gross around X-Men: Apocalypse — one of only three films to out-gross The Wolverine internationally — and end up somewhere over $500 million worldwide. Of course, with Deadpool‘s shocking success, anything can happen.
Bold Prediction: $530 million worldwide ($185 million domestically)
16. THE MUMMY
Release Date: 6/9/2017
If Kingsman The Golden Circle was the risky pick on the list, then The Mummy is a true mystery. The Mummy, which will star Tom Cruise, is set to be the launching point for Universal’s Monsters shared universe. It was initially believed that the franchise would be connected to the Luke Evans-starring Dracula Untold, but that no longer appears to be the case after that film underwhelmed at the box office. So, with the relative failure of the most recent Dracula film, what makes us believe The Mummy will do any better? It simply has more appeal.
While The Mummy is not part of the franchise starring Brendan Fraser, those films can still be looked to for comparison. Regardless of their critical reception, each of the three Mummy films grossed over $400 million worldwide (the spin-off The Scorpion King not included). With the immense growth in the international box office since The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor‘s release, it should be safe to assume that the Tom Cruise-starring film can best that film’s $298 million from international markets. After all, Tom Cruise is still incredibly popular abroad.
Bold Prediction: $550 million worldwide ($175 million domestically)
15. FIFTY SHADES DARKER
Release Date: 2/10/2017
If Fifty Shades of Grey affirmed anything, it is that sex sells – big time. The erotic thriller, based on the novel of the same name by E.L. James, grossed $571 million worldwide, $166 million of which came from the domestic box office. It is a pretty safe bet that the sequel, Fifty Shades Darker, which opens the weekend before Valentines Day, will have similar success. And for those that think anticipation for the return of Christian Grey and Anastasia Steele is not high, think again. The trailer for Fifty Shades Darker was viewed over 114 million times in its first 24 hours of release — more than Star Wars: The Force Awakens.
The real question is whether Fifty Shades Darker will out-gross its predecessor or fall a bit short. It’s a tough question, as Fifty Shades of Grey is already one of the highest grossing R-rated and romantic drama films of all time. Likely, those that went to see the first will want to see the second, so the odds are Fifty Shades Darker will fall around $570 million worldwide, perhaps a bit less due to the crowded 2017 release schedule.
Bold Prediction: $550 million worldwide ($175 million domestically)
14. DUNKIRK
Release Date: 7/21/2017
There are tons of bankable stars whose name is all but a guarantee of a film’s financial success; there are not too many directors who can say their name alone will attract the average moviegoer to the theater. Spielberg, Scorsese, and Tarantino are a few of the names synonymous with “must see in theater” films. But Christopher Nolan is quickly adding his name to that list. In fact, not only has every Christopher Nolan-directed film been rated fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, but there is only one director with over 10 helmed films whose average gross is greater than that of Nolan: Michael Bay (of course, once James Cameron releases a 10th film, he will catapult to the top of the list). And Nolan’s $181 million average domestic gross per film includes two limited releases.
So, it should be clear that when Christopher Nolan is attached to a big budget film as director, it is going to make money. Nolan’s last four films to receive a wide release have all grossed over $675 million worldwide, with The Dark Knight and The Dark Knight Rises both grossing over $1 billion. This would seem to indicate that the box office prospects for Nolan’s next epic, Dunkirk, are strong indeed. The question is: how strong?
No film set in World War II has ever grossed over $500 million worldwide. The high-water mark for the genre is Saving Private Ryan with $481 million. That number should fall to Dunkirk. Interstellar, the last film of Nolan’s to receive a wide release, earned $469 million from international markets alone. While Dunkirk won’t fly so high, expect a new World War II champion.
Bold Prediction: $575 million worldwide ($175 million domestically)
13. POWER RANGERS
Release Date: 3/24/2017
While many box office analysts will have Power Rangers among their riskier bets of 2017, the film, based on the worldwide franchise of the same name, is bound for glory — if for no other reason, Asia. Certainly, if Power Rangers receives strong reviews upon release, it will do well with domestic audiences who are looking forward to a new take on a beloved franchise. Still, even if the film is dismissed by critics, it is close to a sure thing abroad.
Many big budget films these days are made and marketed for international audiences and Power Rangers will be no exception. Based off a franchise with strong roots in Japan, the film should do well there and in surrounding countries. And success in Japan can add a lot to a film’s final total, as the market has grown to be the number three market behind the United States and China.
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Bold Prediction: $600 million worldwide ($185 million domestically)
12. WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES
Release Date: 7/14/2017
We have now hit the sure things. While there are reasons that the earlier films on the list could under-perform, the remaining movies, starting with War for the Planet of the Apes, are all based on franchises with consistent precedent for success. War for the Planet of the Apes is the third film in the Planet of the Apes prequel series that began with Rise of the Planet of the Apes, and continued with Dawn of the Planet of the Apes.
Rise of the Planet of the Apes earned $176 million domestically and $481 million worldwide, while Dawn of the Planet of the Apes exploded for $711 million worldwide, $208 million of which came domestically. The next film returns Matt Reeves to the helm, and should see comparable success to its predecessor. July 2017 is a particularly jammed month, as you will see, so expect the latest Planet of the Apes film to slag a bit domestically. Still, the international box office is only growing and should add more than enough to make up the slack.
Bold prediction: $630 million worldwide ($175 million domestically)
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